July's developments in cleantech

I want to apologize, I have not afforded the time to update this blog as I wanted. So this month I am going to insure that two submissions are made as some of you have requested---ENOUGH SAID, thank you.

Peak Oil---as T.Boon Pickens said this winter the world is
producing 86B barrels a day and demanding 84B barrels. Now the industry analysts are coming to
admit this and that after 2009 we will be producing less---meaning big price changes for fossil fuel energy. Think we can grow enough corn?Investment trends--are that renewable is booming, to the tune of at least $100B in 2006 and more so in 2007. Another analyst puts it this way an all renewable electric grid would save the global economy $180B and cut greenhouse emissions
in half.

Kyoto Protocol implications--are that in the U.S. the voluntary market is rapidly expanding reaching close to $100M. Not included is the advent of the personal or retail market now being led by former Expedia CEO. Also the Royal Bank of Scotland is being made an example with their business practice and extended carbon footprint.The carbon neutral movement--- the Italians are going business casual to lower carbon emissions, while Google seeks to be neutral by next year and
Yahoo is not far behind. All told over 75% of major companies are seeking to lower their carbon footprint.

The new age of cars---is dawning upon us as GM has moved engineers, promise to have fuel cell cars at the showroom by 2012, Tesla is about to begin delivery of their celebrated all electric performance vehicle, Toyota is unveiling their hybrid rechargeable and Denmark launches production of the first all hydrogen car.

Solar development---is that executives see nanotechnology lowering the price of solar KWhr by half and below $1.00 in next few years, policy makers see solar breaking up the grid’s bottleneck out east and Macy’s is joining Wal-Mart, Kohls, and Target in putting solar on their roofs in California.

The Mighty Wind blows---where Dutch turbine maker Vestas is building a US plant in CO and Gamsea has agreed to terms with the unions.

Peak Oil

“The Oil Drum” a well known industry newsletter updated its Oil Forecasts (including Saudi Arabia) on July 22nd: World total liquid production remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off its plateau in 2009. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will also continue increasing. Long term production is seen decreasing by 1% per year after 2009 to 2012 and a 4% decline after 2012.

The Int’l Energy Agency (IEA) issued a report on July 9th that even though it does not acknowledge “Peak Oil”, it predicts a supply crunch in the 2010-12 time frame. Low OPEC spare capacity and slow non-OPEC production growth are of significant concern.

(Editors Note:) If you think we can grow ourselves out of it with corn or soybeans think again; Stanford Ovshinsky renowned scientist and founder of Energy Conversion Devices Inc. stated July 28th that “ If America dedicated the nation's entire production of corn and soybeans to biofuels, he said, it would meet just 12 percent of the demand for gasoline and 6 percent of the demand for diesel.”

Investment News and Trends

Jason Hamlin of the well known “Gold Stock Bull” (an investment strategist in energy, gold and bull markets states that “Alternative Energy is undoubtedly the future and we are entering the early phases of what will be a booming industry….you have the perfect recipe for much higher oil prices…[where] many experts believe we have reached, or will soon, “Peak Oil”.

Investors Flock to Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies; Transactions Leap to Record $100 Billion in 2006, Says UNEP Study; Renewables Shed Fringe Image; American, European Markets Dominate But 9% of Global Investments are in China, 21% in Developing Countries. The report says investment capital flowing into renewable energy climbed from $80 billion in 2005 to a record $100 billion in 2006. As well, the renewable energy sector's growth "although still volatile ... is showing no sign of abating." The report offers a host of reasons behind and insights into the world's newest gold rush, which saw investors pour $71 billion into companies and new sector opportunities in 2006, a 43% jump from 2005 (and up 158% over the last two years. The trend continues in 2007 with experts predicting investments of $85 billion this year). In addition to the $71 billion, about $30 billion entered the sector in 2006 via mergers and acquisitions, leveraged buyouts and asset refinancing. This buy-out activity, rewarding the sector's pioneers, implies deeper, more liquid markets and is helping the sector shed its niche image, according to the report. While renewable sources today produce about 2% of the world's energy, they now account for about 18% of world investment in power generation, with wind generation at the investment forefront. Solar and bio-fuel energy technologies grew even more quickly than wind, but from a smaller base. Read the full report:

Investing in renewable electricity worldwide instead of burning fossil fuels could save US$180 billion annually and cut emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in half by 2030, according to a joint report by Greenpeace and the European Renewable Energy Council, released today.In the first global analysis of its kind, the report argues for a shift in global investments towards renewable energy - solar, wind, hydro, geothermal and bioenergy - within the next 23 years, and away from "dangerous" coal and nuclear power. "As Live Earth mobilizes billions of people to take urgent action against the climate threat, our report shows not only that the world’s electricity needs can be met by renewable energy, but that by doing so, we will literally save trillions of dollars; a massive US$180 billion a year, forever," said Sven Teske of Greenpeace International.

Kyoto Protocol, Carbon Awareness and Implications and Development

The voluntary carbon market has grown by 200% in 2006, with 2007 already proving to be a blow-out in terms of volume, market entrants, and development of transparent standards, according to State and Trends of Voluntary Carbon Market (State and Trends of the Voluntary Carbon Market. The trade of voluntary greenhouses gas emission credits grew to 23.7M metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2006 worth $91M making the volume weighted value of $4.1 per ton of CO2. (price ranged from $0.45 to $45.00 a ton.(Note: In that range the highest prices were paid for projects related to “strong qualities and verifiability attributes such as landfill and coal mine methane as long as publicly visible forestry products and long term sustainable development projects such as energy conservation or off-grid renewable energy.

Editors Note: The Volunteer Carbon Market is also going retail as in a related development Erik Blachford, the former CEO of Expedia.com, has joined TerraPass (http://www.terrapass.com) as its new Chairman and CEO. Blachford says he will spend his first few months on the job expanding the Terra Pass team and learning the ins and outs of the business. Blachford left Expedia several years and is also on Boards of other investments. TerraPass is the brainchild of Dr. Karl Ulrich at the University of Pennsylvania. Along with 41 of his students, Karl launched TerraPass in October, 2004 as a way to help everyday people reduce the climate impact of their driving. Within its first year, TerraPass registered over 2,400 members, reduced 36 million pounds of CO2.

Royal Bank stands up for size of its carbon footprint
Royal Bank of Scotland's chairman, Sir Tom McKillop, claimed this week that an attempt by environmental activists to hold it responsible for the carbon emissions of oil and gas projects which it finances was "deeply, deeply flawed". London-based Platform, which describes itself as a campaigner "for social and ecological justice", claimed in a recent report backed by Friends of the Earth Scotland that Royal was responsible for carbon emissions greater than those of all of Scotland. McKillop said the report implied “banks should be responsible for the carbon footprints of everyone they lend to.” He added: “That would mean banks would be responsible pretty much for the carbon emissions of the world. It is just completely flawed,” he claimed, saying that the argument could be extended to take in the impact of households’ carbon emissions if Royal provided a mortgage, or the environmental impact of cars if it had provided a car loan.

Platform claims in its report “The Oil & Gas Bank”: The Royal Bank of Scotland is covering up involvement in carbon emissions greater than those of the whole country of Scotland. PLATFORM's reveals the extent to which RBS-NatWest is providing the financial fuel driving climate change. (Download the report ) RBS is more "oil" than "royal", as the bank financing oil & gas extraction. Using customers’ cashas financial fuel to drive oil rig and pipeline construction, RBS is accelerating climate chaosand fossil fuel addiction. With global assets of over $1120bn, including NatWest, RBS is determining our energy future.Calling itself "the oil & gas bank", RBS is helping force open the carbon frontier, financing controversial projects in Nigeria, the Caucasus and Wales. Its involvement in Angolan and Nigerian oil fields encourages corruption and conflict, while gas projects from the Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Mexico threaten environmental destruction. Claims to corporate responsibility are full of greenwash. Students are a particularly important constituency for RBS - university is when many people open accounts that they keep for life. Students across the country are pressuring RBS to get out of oil & gas and into solar and wind instead.

Italians fight global warming by shedding their ties
ROME: Last week, when employees at Eni, Italy's largest power company, turned on their computers, a survey popped up on the screen: Would they be willing to relinquish suits and ties for the summer so that Eni could turn down its central air conditioning, saving money and reducing carbon emissions? Ninety percent said yes. So this week, corporate offices in Rome and Milan began an experiment in permitting "lighter and cooler" office attire as the height of summer approaches. In this formal, fashion-conscious country, where suits are the uniform of every office, men at Eni this week turned up in polo shirts, women in T-shirts and skirts.
By allowing the building temperature to creep up just 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), the company estimates it will save 217,000 kilowatts per hour this summer, a reduction of 126 tons of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere over the season, or the amount of carbon emissions that would be saved if 140 employees came to work by public transportation rather than private car for a year. The fact is that air conditioning, in homes and in offices, is a great gobbler of energy and producer of emissions, using about 5 percent of all the electricity produced in the United States, according to the Department of Energy. U.S. homes release 100 million tons of carbon dioxide a year, about two tons per residence. Now imagine what happens as the climate heats up. Last year, air conditioning sales boomed in Britain and across Northern Europe during a July heat wave, according to the Association for the Conservation of Energy. In Britain, the association estimates that emissions from domestic air-conditioners will hit 4.9 million tons a year by 2020, making it impossible for Britain to meet its target under the Kyoto Protocol.

Google says that it plans to be carbon neutral by 2008, Reuters:
To reach the goal, Google is investing in energy efficiency, renewable energy like solar, and will purchase carbon offsets. Google says it took into account emissions from purchased electricity, employee commuting, business travel, construction, and server manufacturing. In a partnership with the Environmental Resources Trust , the company said it independently verified this assessment.

In April, Yahoo announced its goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2008.
Google says it plans to create an additional 50 MWs of renewable energy generating capacity by 2012 –

About 75 percent of companies are actively measuring their “carbon footprint” – the range of carbon emissions from their operations, both direct and indirect, according to a report released today from The Conference Board. The report, based on a survey of 92 companies from various industries, looks at how companies are integrating greenhouse gas management into their overall business strategy. More than 95 percent report that they see the prospect of a carbon-concerned future as creating both business risk and opportunity. One-half indicate they have a program in place to “actively reduce or offset greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.” An additional 33 percent are developing such programs, while 15 percent have no plans to do so. Nearly all programs include reductions in energy use, while most (83 percent) are simultaneously focused on reducing GHGs. One-third are focused primarily on direct emissions – those resulting from fuel consumption or from materials used in their processes – while two-thirds include both direct and indirect emissions (primarily purchased electricity). Fewer than 20 percent have attempted to measure their competitors’ carbon footprints, which may reflect the complexity and difficulty in doing so or indicate that the issue is not perceived as a major competitive challenge at this time.

Transportation

GM has moved 500 fuel cell engineers from advanced development laboratories to core engineering organization with the commitment to develop electrically-propelled vehicles utilizing diverse energy sources. (GM Group VP of Global Powertrain Tom Stephens-6/15/2007. 400 engineers were transferred to the Powertrain Group while another 100 were transferred to the Global Product Development organization where they will start integrating fuel cells to future vehicles—A month earlier GM executive stated the carmaker could have vehicles powered by fuel cells in showrooms by 2012, a target more aggressive than that of most other automakers. "I don't know how many of them we'll make at the time, but we should have them in showrooms by early next decade, around 2011 or 2012," Larry Burns, GM vice president of research and development and planning, told reporters yesterday. "Post-2012, the goal is to ramp up production to about a million vehicles a year, worldwide."

Tesla Motors has received over 560 reservations out of a planned goal of 800 for the 2008 model.The Tesla Roadster is a stylish, high-performance, 100% electric sports car, that can accelerate to 60 mph in about 4 seconds and has a range of more than 200 miles on a single charge. They expect to start shipping Roadsters to customers this Fall.

Hydrogen powered car set for production The first prototype of the Hywet car will roll out of the garage in August, powered by fuel cells running on hydrogen. Hydrogen-powered cars could provide a crucial component in energy plans for the future, because their only waste product is water vapor, and hydrogen fuel is essentially unlimited. Although the car’s technology is still being fine-tuned, Hywet’s developers expect it will soon provide an affordable, green alternative to internal combustion engines, which are responsible for a major portion of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions. The project is the result of a co-operative effort between private companies Heat and Serenergy and Aalborg University, Mariagerfjord Municipality and the Centre for Material and Energy Technology (Cemtec), based in northern Jutland. Thanks to an electric motor, the two-passenger Hywet can reach a speed of 80 km and accelerate surprisingly briskly. Current prices for hydrogen mean the Hywet can be fuelled up for DKK 100 (€13.50), making it competitive with conventional petrol and diesel-powered cars.
The car does have some drawbacks. The technology is still costly and an infrastructure for supplying the hydrogen still needs to be developed.

Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) announced that it has developed a plug-in hybrid vehicle, the Toyota Plug-in HV, and is the first manufacturer to have such a vehicle certified for use on public roads in Japan.The PHEV is a 5 passenger vehicle with a cruising range of 8 miles (13 km) in the all electric mode with a top speed of 60 mph (100 km/hr). Increased battery capacity gives it a longer electric-motor onlycruising range and a battery-charging device, distinguishes it from previous hybrids and allows users to replenish the batteries using household electricity. These features enable the vehicle to run more often in gasoline-free, electric-only mode, such as on short trips in city driving. The resulting fuel efficiency improvements mean lower CO2 emissions and less fossil fuel consumption and, therefore, less pollution. Also, charging the battery with less-expensive nighttime electricity lowers total running costs, providing an economic benefit to owners.

Solar Energy

Solar Power Nanotechnology May Cut Cost In Half, Executives Say
Industry representatives involved in the development of nanotechnology-based solar power panels have said that these panels can potentially cost less than US$1 per kilowatt-hour or half as much as conventional photovoltaic cells. The article says that nanotechnology-based solar cells can potentially convert up to 30 percent of the sun's rays into electricity, compared to the 14 percent conversion efficiency of conventional photovoltaic cells. Alf Bjorseth of Norwegian solar company Scatec AS said: "This technology has the potential to make solar bigger than oil and gas. First we had photovoltaics, then thin-film, and now nanotech. It's the third wave of solar technology that will make it cost less than grid power." The article says that U.S. company Nanosolar is planning to open a factory for nanotech-based thin-film solar panels in 2010 that will produce enough solar cells annually to generate 430 megawatts of power. The article can be viewed online at the link below.

Solar power can ease transmission bottleneck
"Power corridor proposal generates criticism," about opposition to the proposed transmission lines to run between central/upstate and downstate New York, highlights the lack of a coherent federal energy policy. It also points out the need for the states, including New York, to step into this policy vacuum to address the transmission grid bottleneck described in the article.

Toward that end, our organization continues to push for more deployment of solar technology in New York to relieve the stress on the electric grid. Solar is particularly good at this during hot, sunny weather, when the grid is most stressed. Research has shown that strategically installed commercial solar systems along the grid would reduce loads at these critical times and lessen the chance of a major blackout, as happened in August 2003.
Solar systems are proven, reliable (20 years and longer) and available right now for installation on residences and commercial or industrial applications. And solar systems have become more affordable with New York and federal incentives in place.
To make this a reality, we are also pushing for New York to adopt a 10-year incentive program with the goal of installing 2,000 megawatts of solar on residential, not-for-profit and commercial buildings. This would put New York in line with California's and New Jersey's aggressive approach and help to lure solar cell and silicon manufacturers to set up business in the state, particularly in upstate where good paying, high-tech jobs are needed.

Macy's to Incorporate Solar Power in California Locations
The San Francisco division of Macy’s said on Wednesday that it would install rooftop solar power panels and upgrade energy systems in 26 of its 114 stores in the Golden State. The locations are split evenly between northern and Southern California, and were chosen for their potential to maximize conservation.

The Mighty Wind

Wind Turbine Plants Breaking Ground in US
Vestas debut called 'wind-win'
$60 million plant will take eight months to build. The groundbreaking ceremony for a $60 million wind turbine blade manufacturing plant was referred to Thursday as both a "win-win" and a "wind-win" situation" for Windsor, the region and the state. But whatever label numerous dignitaries put on it, the new 200,000-square-foot Vestas Blades facility which will be located in the Great Western Industrial Park on the east side of Windsor, is widely being recognized as a key component that could place Colorado at the forefront of the renewable energy industry.

Wind Turbine Manufacturer Gamesa Agrees to its First U.S. Union Contract
Gamesa, a Spanish wind turbine manufacturer, has hammered out its first-ever U.S. union contract with the United Steelworkers (USW). Workers at two Gamesa facilities in Pennsylvania voted to approve their first contract with 80 percent in favor of it. The agreement lays the foundation for a stronger partnership between one of the world’s largest wind turbine manufacturers – and the only one that makes its blades, nacelles, and towers all in the U.S. – and the 850,000 member union.
The three-year contract raises worker salaries by more than 10 percent, as well as provides for bonuses and benefits for roughly 600 employees. Michael Peck, a Gamesa spokesman, called the contract “a world-class agreement." Tom Conway, USW international vice president

Final Editors Note: Implications of these and other developments too numerous to post is that the disruptive economics and technologies are now in play regarding energy and eventually technologies. The price of energy based on the price of a barrel of oil is stable now between $60.00 and $75.00 but if peak oil predictions are correct that price will creep towards $100.00 a barrel as global demand increases. (US demand is increasing currently at 22% of world demand up from 15% in 1991, along with the ever increasing demands of China and India.) The inevitable will come into reality now slated for 2010 when prices are expected to rise a minimum of triple today's price. This coupled with the social and political demands of Kyoto Protocol and carbon neutral forces will be the fuel for the new booming market of renewables/alternatives and cleantech.

For executives and professionals seeking to transition into this sector as part of their career goals one must understand that in some ways this sector does not have a resident population to satisfy demand but there are sectors and industries that naturally provide a good foundation. Wind Energy outside the power generation area is connected to the aeronautics, gearing, capital infrastructure construction and materials technology arenas. The solar world is connected to the semi-conductor and composite materials arena. The fuel cell area is connected to electronic device, power supply, semi-conductor and industrial gases. I caution the world to step lightly in the area of ethanol be it fermitation or celluose as it appears to be a dead-end and lacking in a sustainable marketplace. The ramp up in this new market could be greater than the dotcom and the IT world combined.

Market and Economic Developments in the Renewable and Alternative Sector

Editors Note of Gratitude: A few weeks back I decided to publish this blog to a personal email list I have accumulated recently, and received a very positive response from a vast majority of those who replied personally and only a few who requested to be removed, to that I thank you.

I still have ways to go in adding more to the prospective list, so if you are receiving this for the first time I hope you find it relative to your world and please reply with any comments or
requests.

I have decided that I am going to try to publish an article twice a month on this blog, (except in the case of major events or circumstances), feedback and material suggest this could be a good schedule. The first entry of each month I am going to try to provide an overview of what I perceive are the big trends, developments and circumstances related to the new 'Global Clean Energy Economy' in relation to what I presume to be information relative to those seeking or developing professional careers in that space. The second entry each month I am going to try to publish an article that uses an anecdotal experience in my practice or have been told that might provide personal insights to those executives and professionals presently working or seeking to develop a career in this sector.

This month I am going to focus on new reports that offer a trend that appear to be the beginning of the deconstruction of the old 20th century fossil fuel economy and its markets, to new markets reconstructing the 21st century new energy economy. I hope this informs you seek to either find an opportunity in this changing marketplace or informs you better how to adjust or seize and recognize a new opportunity.

I. 'The Great Race', and the upcoming car propulsion revolution

---General Motors' Director of Advanced Technology, Dr. Christopher
Borroni-Bird in an interview with UK's Autocar stated that "using the internal combustion engines is no longer an option and that includes diesels and hybrids". He went on to state that: "Hybrids are not the solution...they delay the day of reckoning. The debate about hybrids being cleaner than diesel is irrelevant--the diesel is dead end because it uses fossil fuels....--that hydrogen-powered cars and electric cars would develop alongside each other and that GM would have a 'cost effective' fuel cell car by 2010. It will trial 100 fuel cell Equinox SUV's across the world in a market test for the car."

This is a huge strategic statement from the head of their advanced technology R&D group as GM is reeling from market share, revenue, and market evaluation loss. It will be interesting when GM senior exec's begin making similar statements.

---In other related developments: Liquide Air to supply portable
hydrogen fueling systems to GM, where Liquide Air is going to supply five
700--bar portable fast fill hydrogen fueling systems in the U.S. in conjunction
with Liquide Air's agreement to partner with GM in Canada installing a fueling
system at GM's Cold Weather testing site. GM also announced the selection
of Continental Automotive Systems to develop the Volt Batteries for the E-Flex system as the latest confirmation that GM is attempting to diversify the industry away from petroleum with a range of propulsion alternatives.

---The second week of May GM had a huge demonstration by driving a fuel
cell powered SUV 300 miles from Honeoye Falls NY to Tarrytown NJ.

---And finally probably the biggest development in the fuel cell and future
car where at Purdue University Professor Jerry Woddall and two students 'invented' a way to use an aluminum alloy to extract hydrogen from water! They hold that the process holds the promise of producing a ready supply of hydrogen upon demand and only as much as is needed. In fact the scientists stated that hydrogen could be used on existing internal combustion engines with a injector conversion or with fuel cells.

(These develops insinuate that the auto industry that contributes $355B to the U.S. GDP (2002) is about to go through a complete deconstruction and reconstruction over the next twenty years. How fast and where the tipping point is going to be is still unknown, but conceivably if GM releases test autos in 2010, then going to market greater by 2012-13 it is possible that by 2020 most new car sales will be fuel cell or all electric from the world's second largest auto maker. The only analogy I can make is that the transformation will be as profound as corporate America going from mainframe batch computing to distributed processing through PC networks between 1986 and 1996.)

II. The Mighty Wind[power] cometh!

---Last week the largest wind energy conference took place in Southern California at the LA Convention Center where an estimated 6000 plus individuals attended, offering 400 exhibitors and discussing all things windy. At the conference it was revealed that the U.S. market was on the verge of growing the fastest and biggest in the world where already three is installed 2400 megawatts of power generation making wind the second-largest source of new power generation in the country. The AWEA estimates that the industry will more than double that capacity by installing 3000 megawatts in 2007.

---Wind energy is now the top investment as published by Bloomberg News where global expenditure is estimated to be exceeding $150B in wind projects over the next five years, (according to CLSA research). The Pichet Clean Energy Fund (Phillippe de Weck) stated that Wind has the biggest potential to meet renewable energy targets over the next decade, compared to biofuels and solar." Michael McNamara (analyst for Jefferies Int'l) stated that "Wind energy is cheaper than solar and it is a less risky form of investment." Currently Wind Energy provides only 1% of the worlds energy needs but Denmark boasts that 20% of the grid is met by wind, as Spain derives 9% and Germany 7%. The U.S. is now the fastest growing market for wind with 21 States calling for renewable power mandates. McNamara stated the U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of wind power potential. The threshold that compares wind to petroleum is $45 a barrel and I doubt we are going to see that level soon.

---Colorado Sierra Club and Environment Colorado has proposed a ballot initiative to states make it law that by 2012 10% and by 2022 ,20% of the power will be generated by renewable sources claiming that it will create 4000 new jobs and
raising the State GDP by $1.9B. Colorado boasts the 5th best potential for solar
energy and 11 best State for wind power generation.

(To me the message is clear, Wind Energy is the next explosive market with a whole new sub economy emerging supplying and servicing this demand for power generation state by state and through grass roots efforts mandating power supply. Money will continue to flow into the sector as it appears to be solid in its return. What will be needed is government intervention and partnerships installing new power generation lines from wind farms to distribution networks
in metropolitan centers. Other opportunities will be to be part of the supply chain in manufacturing the huge backlog of turbine orders. But if the current power generation is 1% today and the average demand is 10% in those 21 states by 2020, there needs to be a lot of effort and means to catch up with mandated and desired demands.)

III. Here Comes the Sun.... bringing down the costs

---Solar PV costs are expected to decrease by 40% over the next 36 months! In short it appears that "Moores Law" could be at work in solar technology as advances in
poly silicon materials indicate that the cost of PV solar panels will decrease greatly. Also the production and distribution of solar PV cells has risen 6-fold
since 2000 and has grown 41% in 2006, even though grid connected power is still
less than 1% overall, lead by Japan and Germany where the world generates 5000
megawatts. China could end up being the worlds silicon producer as it passed the
US as the 3rd largest manufacturer in 2006.

---Breakthrough solar dyes could change solar panel applications as researchers from the Nanomaterials Research Centre in New Zealand have now developed synthetic dyes that can be used to generate electricity at one tenth of the cost of
current silicon-based solar panels. They state thee compounds work in
low-light conditions and can be cheaply incorporated into window-panes and
building materials, thereby turning an entire building into a generator of
electricity. The synthetic dyes are made from simple organic compounds
closely related to those found in nature.

---Solar industry to grow from $20B to $100B in 2010
states Financial Times where "profit growth is expected to
accelerate as costs are contained or lowered pushing margins up to nearly
60 per cent." These high profits hopefully will mean more capital investments
into production facilities and R&D. A 10-fold increase in production of
high-purity silicon, the main material used to make solar panels, is also
forecasted for 2015 by Photon Consulting, a German research group.

---Slicing the silicon leads to other breakthroughs where at the heart each cell is a single wafer of highly refined and expensive silicon that contributes around 75 per cent of the total cost. By slicing the wager this reduces by 90 per cent the
amount of silicon used in a cell. A single wafer 15 cm in diameter can be used
to cover an area of one square metre. "We think that taking current
knowledge would knock off three-quarters of the cost." Now the South
Australian-based solar cell maker Origin Energy expects to manufacturer sliver cell this year but major production will not be available until 2010.

---Growing number of Americans who shun power lines, choosing to live off the grid, without commercial power. All the residents of Three Rivers Oregon get most of their power from solar panels on their rooftops or on nearby freestanding
structures. The phenomena is occurring with about 180,000 homes, mostly in
the West because of people moving into remote areas that are beyond the reach of
commercial power, because of ample sun and environmental conscientiousness, and possibly because of Westerners' traditional independent streak. National demand is soaring, and the off-the-grid movement is yet to be felt in a significant way by the power industry, nonetheless, the number of people going off the grid
increases by about a third each year, said Richard Perez, who publishes Home
Power magazine.

Initial capital costs appear to be solar's barrier to rapid advance and in that light material costs, manufacturing economies of scale and material science are all converging to create a competition on cost. Solar is also restricted by the aesthetic design limitations and limited applications of placement. That said solar appears to also be in breakthrough as large capital
purchasers like retail outlets; Wal-Mart, Target, Kohls, Home Depot and Lowes,
government entities like the US Army & AirForce at their bases, industrial facilities like Frito Lay. A tipping point will be recognized when a significant portion of new development is incorporating solar into all their building designs. Yet this movement unlike Wind is about getting off the grid or reducing one's dependence on the grid and not transferring power
generation of the grid. As the cost indeed comes down and aesthetics and applications become more flexible and inviting solar will only grow in penetration. The risk as seen by investors is that it will be both a consumer market and B2B market but not an industrial market.

IV. Biofuels and converting fuels

---The controversy of biofuels, namely fuels derived from grains is heating
up. Cargill's CEO stated it is a risky venture at best and some are warning of a Great Biofuels Bubble. Yet each month another ethanol plant is erected causing the recent rise in corn prices--almost 70 percent Sept 2006-February 2007, the spike being sooner than many agriculture economists had expected. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, this year the country is going to use 18 to 20 percent of its total corn crop for the production of ethanol, and by next year that will jump to 25 percent. And that increase, says Marshall Martin, an agriculture economist at Purdue University, "is the main driver behind the price increase for corn." The jump in corn prices is already affecting the cost of food. The most notable example: in Mexico, which gets much of its corn from the United States, the price of corn tortillas has doubled in the past year, according to press reports, setting off large protest marches in Mexico City. It's almost certain that most of the rise in corn prices is due to the U.S. ethanol policy, says David Victor, director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development at Stanford University.

Cellulosic production at hand: "In the laboratory, there are no more obstacles to speak of. We've reached viable solutions to the major problems with cellulosic ethanol production," said Elba Bom, bioethanol coordinator for Brazil's Science and Technology Ministry. "The question now is putting these solutions into the most efficient industrial models."A prototype plant could be built in about two years, she said. "There is not one cellulosic technology, because there is not just one feedstock. Some countries, such as the United States, will use switch grass or wood chips, while Brazil will use bagasse and straw from cane processing," Bom said. Helena Chum, senior advisor for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory said the cost of cellulose ethanol production in the United States was expected to continue to keep falling rapidly -- from $6 a gallon only a few years ago to $2 a gallon around 2008. "Eventually, by 2012 to 2016, it should fall to $1 per gallon, when output should reach 20 billion gallons," Chum said, adding that 5 billion to 8 billion gallons of that will come from cellulose. The United States passed Brazil as the world's largest ethanol producer in 2006 and the two countries now account for about 70 percent of world output of the biofuel.

The Biofuels market is the most risky because it is tied at the hip with the internal combustion engine and the 20th century economy. It is flying in the face of the New Global Energy Economy which is seeking to replace direct energy costs with capital technology and resources,
(renewable from self generating occurrences, sunlight, wind and hydro & wave). It is interesting the GM is now moving away from the engine and towards all electric and fuel cell even with cellulose's development.

Lesson's learned, the importance of understanding what really is sustainability

In executive search at the conclusion of the selection process two things happen; a candidate is either offered the position or they are not. Usually there are many factors why a candidate finishes second; perceived personal or professional shortcomings are often factors communicated as determining items (interpreted correctly or misinterpreted) often surfaced in the momentary pressure of an interview. Sometimes one candidate totally eclipses another through the weight or preciseness of their experiences on what is perceived they bring to the table under the circumstances of fortunate timing. Yet in this new energy age that is unfolding, I am finding another separation component that is becoming quite evident, namely----"sustainability". What is it, how it is deeply understood how sustainability is a tangible consequence in operating a profitable growing business in today’s global economy.

Recently I have placed three C-level individuals in the cleantech sector and had one finish second. Looking back it was each individual's deep understandings of sustainability and how that was reflected in the business opportunity they were being presented with and the value propositions the company's possessed going forward in this new market place. Let me explain deeper.

Sustainability is not something that can be learned reading an article or researching what a company's stated position is with firms actively focused in developing cleantech businesses, it is something that permeates their entire business philosophy. It is analogous to how Microsoft or Intel or Silicon Graphics developed their corporate structures at the dawn of the Information Age three decades ago. They were evangelistic about incorporating IT into every business system they had, pushing the envelope and being both the example and experimenting with a fully integrated business model.

In the same light sustainability is more than a PR concept for cleantech companies, it is what makes them different and why ultimately senior executives chosen to lead those companies must be fully versed in what that means and how it projects to the future of the marketplace and the firm's ultimate corporate culture. Sustainability means that the future is a clean carbon footprint as the ultimate goal in conducting a profitable business. To the previous generation this sounds "impracticable" (quoting the recent Bush Administration statement about the proposed new carbon emissions targeted to be 50% of 1990 total by 2050). Yet to the new cleantech world reducing carbon emissions to this level or less is not only practicable, but profitable. Translated into fiscal measures, not unlike the investment into IT which fostered extraordinary gains in worker productivity's replacing direct labor costs of whole workforce divisions of support labor, cleantech offers the same direct costs replacement and a extraordinary return on resource investments.

How does this translate into 2007 considerations of executives attempting to transfer into or lead cleantech businesses with experiences in non-cleantech industries---plenty, it is the difference maker. This is no doubt in my mind that C-level, VP-level and even senior management professionals who are only superficially cognizant of sustainability will either not be offered the position if up against a competitive candidate who is or the eventually the hire or the client company will not ultimately succeed into the cleantech market.

My last three hires all prevailed because of this component where sustainability was not only identified but their attitude considered superior to all the other candidates, My one second-place finisher failed in this area but was seemingly superior in other areas of consideration. Looking back at earlier searches in cleantech related industries, the same thread has run through as a decision component although I did not recognize it as such then. My potential clients access my attitude towards sustainability as part of an overall assessment of my capabilities in this field. It is more than lip service and anyone denying it is fooling themselves. We are at the dawn of a new age and it is exciting and compelling. Consequentely I will be adding this to my overall assessment of viable candidates also. So I ask the reader, how can you translate the value of sustainability into a businesses' value proposition?

Huge technological development---hydrogen

A Purdue University engineer and National Medal of Technology winner says he's ready and able to start a revolution in clean energy. Professor Jerry Woodall and students have invented a way to use an aluminum alloy to extract hydrogen from water — a process that he thinks could replace gasoline as well as its pollutants and emissions tied to global warming.

But Woodall says there's one big hitch: "Egos" at the U.S. Department of Energy,
a key funding source for energy research, "are holding up the revolution." Woodall says the method makes it unnecessary to store or transport hydrogen — two major challenges in creating a hydrogen economy.

"The hydrogen is generated on demand, so you only produce as much as you need when you need it," he said in a statement released by Purdue this week. So instead of having to fill up at a station, hydrogen would be made inside vehicles in tanks about the same size as today's gasoline tanks. An internal reaction in those tanks would create hydrogen from water and 350 pounds worth of special pellets. "No extra room would be needed," Woodall said, "and the added weight would be the equivalent of an extra passenger, albeit a pretty large extra passenger."

The hydrogen would then power an internal combustion engine or a fuel cell stack. "It's a simple matter to convert ordinary internal combustion engines to run on hydrogen," Woodall said. "All you have to do is replace the gasoline fuel injector with a hydrogen injector."

How it works. Here's how it all happens: Hydrogen is generated spontaneously when water is added to pellets of the alloy, which is made of aluminum and a metal called gallium. "When water is added to the pellets, the aluminum in the solid alloy reacts because it has a strong attraction to the oxygen in the water," Woodall said. "No toxic fumes are produced." This reaction splits the oxygen and hydrogen contained in water, releasing hydrogen in the process.

An electrical and computer engineering professor, Woodall first discovered the basic process while working as a researcher in the semiconductor industry in 1967. "I was cleaning a crucible containing liquid alloys of gallium and aluminum," Woodall said. "When I added water to this alloy — talk about a discovery — there was a violent poof. I went to my office and worked out the reaction in a couple of hours to figure out what had happened. When aluminum atoms in the liquid alloy come into contact with water, they react, splitting the water and producing hydrogen and aluminum oxide."

NOTE: This has bigger implications than people realize and fall into the paradigm that a Nobel Laurette economist and venture capitalist where the driving force of the new clean energy economy will be the investment into capital resources replacing direct fuel costs. When this technology is developed the implication is that consumers of energy (be it in transportation or equipment) will derive energy from water and a capital expenditure of this system and using it with a fuel cell electrical generator. Distributors of energy (oil companies or power providers) will become obsolete.

Weekly headlines as market advances

• Kleiner, Perkins, Caulfield & Byers states that venture funding for green or renewable technologies will be $3.5B in 2007 up from $1.6B (Ray Lane, managing partner).

• Deloitte's Survey Shows Consumers Would Pay More For Renewable Energy in Power News by on Tuesday 15 May 2007 According to a recent survey conducted by the energy and resources industry group of Deloitte & Touche USA LLP, the U.S. subsidiary of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, a majority of consumers would pay more for clean energy. A total of 62% of those surveyed said they would willingly pay higher electric rates for clean coal, and 54% said they would pay more for alternative energy sources, the company says. In addition, 44% of the respondents cited environmental reasons as the primary motivator when it comes to the purchase of alternative or renewable energy. The factor of price was the second most mentioned motivator (30%), followed by energy reliability (15%) and jobs creation (8%). "We were surprised at the increasing level of support from consumers, but the findings remain mixed," says Branko Terzic, Deloitte's regulatory policy leader, energy and resources. "While more than three quarters of the consumers surveyed believed that alternative energy brought benefits, 42 percent would not pay an additional 5 percent on their electricity bill to support government-mandated alternative energy purchases."

• Wal-Mart is purchasing as much as 20 million kWh of solar power, from BP Solar, SunEdison LLC, and PowerLight, a subsidiary of SunPower Corporation, for 22 combined Wal-Mart stores, Sam's Clubs and a distribution center in Hawaii and California.

Part II Case Study of Successful Search Project

Alternative Energy pre-IPO company seeks experienced CFO to lead it in acquiring private investment capital and lead the firm in preparation if a desired IPO.

This search was referred to me from a managing director at a private equity firm that had a small investment in it where I was told they were looking for a top level, experienced CFO. The firm can be described as both cleantech and biotech firm using convergent technologies to produce clean natural gas.

The requirement was to seek out and deliver candidates that possessed an oil & gas financial industry background and also find someone who has experience working in a scientific, biotech or pharmaceutical/chemical oriented environment who had raised institutional investment capital along with an IPO and publicly owned environment. Within a week I was fortunate to secure not one but two individuals who fit the profile and were interested in pursuing the position.

It is interesting to note that both were highly prized and involved in post IPO companies and yet found the prospects of working in another venture exciting and potentially rewarding. Both recognized the unique opportunities in developing this business model for today's energy and environment marketplace. And both had worked with a scientific bio-engineering company.

What set one apart from the other was his experience with oil & gas even though the other possessed energy and renewable energy experience. Ultimately the client chose the individual with direct experience with their ultimate customer. The purpose of these two unrelated anecdotes reveals that even at top executive positions in emerging companies with new technologies that industry experience is paramount along with horizontal experience and personality.

Case Study: CEO hired for emerging company

Often I am asked by prospective CEO's how does one transition into another leadership role after working as a management consultant for a few years?

This week I concluded a search assignment for a CEO of an emerging company
that is in a related to the cleantech sector. The selected individual had wealth of professional experience directly related to the search parameters requested by client which was essential for him to be initially considered as a viable candidate.

(Note: Over the last decade industry and/or technology experience in a certain field is becoming as essential for CEO's and CFO's as with qualifications for other senior or mid-management positions. Meaning vertical market knowledge is as important as hozizontal or management experience, expecially in emerging or rapid growth business models.)

He was able to draw upon his experience as a consultant developing relationships and defining the position and business opportunity, but it was his management experience that provided him the credibility to compete for the position. That experience coupled with his ability to seek out investors who were comfortable and even highly interested in the business because of his participation is what carried the day.

This is important to understand for a prospective CEO should have a network of investors, either angels or a Private Equity firm already established, so they can to be an active player in this kind of business opportunity.

It is no different than developing a supportive Board of Directors in a publicly-held company where in fact the investors will be sitting on the Board. Furthermore in this case the prospective CEO had to make a leap of faith in actually developing the business plan that would be presented to the new and old investors (who were also active founders) currently engaged in parts of the management. They were seeking further capitalize their business model but had to come around that to do so required a new professional and accomplished management team that the new investors were actually backing, not merely the exciting emerging new technology. For the prospective CEO developing the business plan was a double sided edge, since there was no flushed out working plan previously he could be inviting competition but he also had developed his plan and was able to present to willing investors who quickly backed him.

Each week I am going to attempt to outline successful completed searches in this arena...